Bayan kai hari kan abokan hamayyarsu, masu ikirarin jihadi na IS sun yi gwagwarmaya kan iko a arewa maso gabashin Najeriya

ISWAP

Shekaru da dama, shugaban kungiyar Boko Haram, Abubakar Shekau ya kasance mutum mai matukar tsoro a cikin tayar da kayar baya na Najeriya, yana tsoratar da al’ummomin yankin da hare-hare, bama-bamai da sace mutane.

A yau, wannan adadi mai yawan gaske yana neman barin wurin bayan an ji masa mummunan rauni – ko kuma watakila an kashe shi – makon da ya gabata a cikin arangama da masu adawa da Jihadin Islama masu adawa.

Idan haka ne, da alama wani babban sauyi a tashin hankalin na jihadi da aka kwashe shekaru 12 ana yi a Najeriya na ci gaba yayin da makiyansa ke karfafa karfinsu, manazarta sun ce.

Kungiyar Islamic State West Africa (ISWAP) yanzu haka tana auna Sojojin Boko Haram bayan sun mamaye mabuyar Shekau da ke dajin Sambisa a cikin jihar Borno, kamar yadda majiyoyin yankin da na tsaro suka ce.

ISWAP ta zafafa kai hare-hare kan bangarorin Boko Haram, ta nada shugabanta a yankin Shekau tare da aiwatar da hukuncin kisa a kan kwamandojin 10 da suka kame wadanda suka ki mika wuya, in ji majiyar.

Yayin da ISWAP ke mamaye mayakan da yankin Shekau, sojojin Najeriya na iya fuskantar wata kungiyar masu da’awar jihadi, hadisai na cewa.

Amma kuma kungiyar ta ISWAP na iya kokarin kokawa ko shawo kan bangarorin kungiyar ta Boko Haram da ke biyayya ga Shekau a wajen Sambisa, musamman a yankunan kan iyaka.

Wata majiyar tsaro ta ce “Mai yiwuwa ba a gama ba tukuna, dole ne kungiyar ta ISWAP ta shawo kan wadannan ko kuma shawo kan wadannan sansanonin don hada kai da su”.

Shekau ya samu mummunan rauni bayan ya harbe kansa a makon da ya gabata don kauce wa fada daga mayakan ISWAP yayin da suka mamaye dajin nasa, a cewar majiyoyin leken asiri.

Majiyoyin tsaron gida biyu na Najeriya sun ce mutanen Shekau sun kwashe shi da mummunar rauni, yayin da kafofin yada labaran cikin gida suka ruwaito cewa ya mutu ne daga raunukan da ya samu, duk da cewa har yanzu ba a san halin da yake ciki ba.

Babu ISWAP ko Boko Haram da suka fitar da sanarwa kuma sojojin Najeriya sun ce kawai suna bincike.

Amma komai matsayinsa, fada tsakanin bangarorin da ke gaba da juna ya tsananta.

Majiyoyin leken asiri sun ce a ranar Laraba, mayakan jihadi na ISWAP a cikin kwale-kwale masu saurin gudu sun kai hari kan sansanonin Boko Haram a Bosso da ke makwabtaka da Nijar, lamarin da ya kai su ga yin artabu da asarar rayuka.

“An yi kazamin fada a Agadira, Lelewa da Kwatar Bauna tsakanin ISWAP da mayakan Boko Haram wanda ya zub da jini,” in ji wata majiya ta sirri da ta nemi a sakaya sunan ta.

Kungiyoyin biyu kuma suna fada a tsaunukan Mandara da ke kan iyaka da Kamaru, inda mayakan Boko Haram ke yin kawanya, a cewar majiyoyin leken asiri na yankin.

Taking over Sambisa
A cikin shekaru 12, sojojin Najeriya sun yi gwagwarmayar kawo karshen tawayen masu ikirarin jihadi wanda ya kashe mutane sama da 40,000 tare da raba kusan miliyan biyu da muhallansu a arewa maso gabas.

Bangarorin biyu masu da’awar jihadi a Najeriya ba su taba warware sabanin da ke tsakaninsu ba – galibi kan yadda Shekau ke nuna wariya ga fararen hula Musulmi da kuma amfani da kananan yara ‘yan kunar bakin wake.

Tun kafin yaƙin Sambisa, ISWAP ta zama mafi ƙarfi, tana kai manyan hare-hare kan sojojin Najeriya.

A cewar majiyoyin tsaro a yankin Tafkin Chadi, ISWAP ta nada Abu Mus’ab Al-Barnawi a matsayin kwamanda a Sambisa don maye gurbin Shekau.

Al-Barnawi ɗa ne ga wanda ya kafa ƙungiyar Boko Haram Mohammed Yusuf kuma an zaɓe shi ne domin ya maye gurbin Shekau bayan da Boko Haram suka yi wa IS biyayya.

Shekau ya ki amincewa da canjin, wanda hakan ya sa Al-Barnawi tare da dimbin mayaka suka balle suka kafa kungiyar ISWAP a shekarar 2016.

Bayan mamayar ta da Sambisa, ISWAP ta aike da sakonni ga mazauna yankin na Tafkin Chadi, inda ta ke shaida masu cewa suna marhabin da kai wa ga “halifancin” ta, in ji Sallau Arzika, wani masunci daga Baga.

An kori mazauna yankin daga tsibirin tabkin bayan da ISWAP ta zarge su da yi wa sojoji leken asiri. Al-Barnawi ya ce yanzu za su iya dawowa don kamun kifi da fatauci bayan sun biya haraji, tare da tabbacin ba za a cutar da su ba, in ji Arzika.

ISWAP ta fadawa mazauna yankin cewa sun ayyana tsagaita wuta a kan sojojin Najeriya don mayar da hankali a yanzu kan yakar “azzalumai” Boko Haram har sai sun mika wuya ga shugabaninta ko an kashe su, in ji shi.

Al-Barnawi ya tara kwamandojin Boko Haram 30 ciki har da biyu daga cikin biyar da ake tunanin za su maye gurbin Shekau, a cewar majiyoyin leken asiri da mazauna yankin da masaniyar ayyukan jihadi.

Maiduguri tana cikin hadari?
Rikicin jihadi zai iya ba sojojin Najeriya damar yin amfani da su.

Amma idan kungiyar ISWAP za ta dauki wani bangare daga cikin mutanen Shekau, masu jihadi za su samu albarkatu don datse hanyoyi a kusa da babban birnin jihar Borno na Maiduguri da kuma kara gwada sojojin da tuni suka dogara da karfin iska, in ji Peccavi Consulting, kungiyar masu hadari da ke da kwarewa a Afirka, a cikin bayanin.

“Idan ISWAP ta shawo kan sojojin Shekau don su kasance tare da su, za su rinjayi yawancin sojojin abokan gaba tare da kasancewa a cikin mafi yawan wuraren da ba a yi amfani da su ba a yankin Arewa maso Gabas,” in ji ta.

Tun daga shekarar 2019, sojojin Najeriya suka janye daga kauyuka da kananan sansanoni don yin kawanya a cikin abin da ake kira “supercamps”, dabarun masu sukar sun ce ya ba masu jihadi damar yawon shakatawa a yankunan karkara.

Karbe yankin Shekau ya karfafa ISWAP, amma fadadawa cikin sauri na iya haifar da babban martani na soja kamar na 2015 lokacin da sojojin Chadi suka tsallaka kan iyaka don taimakawa fatattakar Boko Haram.

“ISWAP na iya zama mai wayo sosai da ba zai fadada nisa ba, cikin sauri,” in ji Alexander Thurston, mataimakin farfesa a kimiyyar siyasa a Jami’ar Cincinnati, a cikin shafin yanar gizo na Lawfare.

“Muddin hakan ba zai haifar da da mai ido ba, kungiyar ta ISWAP za ta ci gaba da tasiri a kan miliyoyin rayuka, da ikon cire haraji daga wasu mutanen karkara, da kuma ikon cin gashin kai da ‘yancin motsi.”

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